OPEC warns on future oil supply

It is possible that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will not be able to meet Western demand for crude oil within fifteen years, according to Saudi officials.

According to the International Energy Agency, OPEC would have to raise production to 50 million barrels per day by 2020 to meet projected demand at current prices.

That is 20 million barrels per day over the approximately 30 million barrels a day pumped by OPEC member nations.

Saudi Arabia would have to provide around half of OPEC’s production growth over the next decade or two, with most of the rest of the growth being handled by Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

Officials of Saudi Arabia say that they will not be able to meet that demand within 10 to 15 years with Saudi Arabia, holding the world’s largest oil reserves, falling about 4.5 million barrels per day below what their contribution would need to be.

The kingdom, which now pumps around 9.5 million barrels of oil per day, says that it could reach a production level of 12.5 million barrels per day by 2009 and 15 million barrels eventually.

Western analysts say that it would be difficult for the kingdom to raise production levels any higher than that.

European officials, meanwhile, say they believe demand could be held 44 million barrels per day by that time if energy saving measures can be instituted. Officials believe that OPEC could handle that level of production.